It's obvious that weather is a huge factor and if you think this is just a "shoulda-woulda-coulda game", then maybe you need to take a step back and admit you have no domain knowledge?

Also, if you're doing statistical analyses of your own, hopefully this isn't how you react to domain experts giving you advice on factors you should consider. If you react the way you just did, it's quite likely people will just shut up and you'll be left floundering the darkness.