I agree that is the reality of why this has happened, but it is completely at odds with the story that that AI maximalists are telling the world, which is that software development is over because LLMs can do anything with a couple of specs and a Ralph Wiggum loop.

Eh, we’re approaching that world (I am "an AI maximalist", I guess)

But someone with the knowledge to guide an AI will have more success than someone without, at least today. I don’t think that will necessarily be true in a year or two.