I think the UI is the less radical part of their current gambit. Risking their OEM channel by selling their own hardware and risking their VAR channel by encouraging people to do their Windows 8 purchases directly are both major cards that MS has thrown down.
What I'm not clear on is whether this is an intentional effort to circumvent the Innovator's Dilema or just chasing Apple. If it's the former, there should come other, interesting steps. If it's the latter, it will just be sad to watch.
If Microsoft was serious about ditching OEMs on device sales then surface and surface pro would have been priced at $300 and $600 respectively and would have been shipped with touch cover. They have enough cash to subsidize them. It is not about bypassing the OEMs. Surface devices are Microsoft's attempt to set a standard on Windows 8 devices. It is a signal to OEMs that they must think twice before installing a crapware that hampers usability.
I don't think subsidizing the surface to get volume would be a winning move either.
Selling heavily discounted surface tablets today would alienate and possibly kill their OEMs and set forward price expectations that would preclude future profitability.
Microsoft needs to establish a position for themselves that is profitable, otherwise they're burning their bridges behind them AND in front of them. It's hard to see whether Surface is going to succeed -- the reviews thus far are at best equivocal.
I think they're doing the right thing. The OEMs are too lazy and slow, VARs are becoming less and less important. Intel for instance had to shove the Ultrabook down the OEMs throats, basically paying them to do it, and still only Lenovo has done a decent job so far. Intel had Ultrabook prototypes ready before the Macbook Air was conceived.
With a competitor like Apple, there's no way you can win this game without the vertical integration advantage they have.
I would suggest a look at production numbers for the Surface and projected sales of OEM Windows 8 licenses. I think "risk" is a bit of a dramatic interpretation, but that's just my opinion.
How will these translate to actual sales? If Microsoft ships a lot of OEM devices and the manufacturer's channels are stuffed but don't sell - it won't help them at all in the long run.
I wish that instead of shoving MetroUI in the user's face by not allowing you to launch directly into desktop shell, they would have done something like Apple's Camera lockscreen slider - it teases you and is there at the bottom, but if you want you can ignore it completely.
Microsoft should win by letting users completely ignore their ground-up rethink of the user interaction model for computing that they're betting the company on. The one that is their only chance of catching up to iOS and Android. The one that, if it fails, will spell the end of their dominance in computing forever.
Sure, why wouldn't they want everyone to just ignore that? No big deal.
Is everyone missing the point? I don't know how else to say it, the percent of overall sales of Windows laptop/tablets from Microsoft is likely to be very small. I think it's simply wrong to act like the OEMs are cowering.
What I'm not clear on is whether this is an intentional effort to circumvent the Innovator's Dilema or just chasing Apple. If it's the former, there should come other, interesting steps. If it's the latter, it will just be sad to watch.