All right, same question: Is there more reason to believe that it is one breakthrough away, or to believe that it is not? What evidence do you see to lean one way or the other?
It’s clearly possible, because we exist. Just a matter of time. And as we’ve seen in the past, breakthroughs can produce incredible leaps in capabilities (outside of AI as well). We might not get that breakthrough(s) for a thousand years, but I’m definitely leaning towards it being inevitable.
Interestingly the people doing the actual envelope pushing in this domain, such as Ilya Sutskever, think that there it’s a scaling problem, and neural nets do result in AGIs eventually, but I haven’t heard them substantiate it.
> This is not much different than saying that it’s possible to fly a spacecraft to another galaxy because spacecrafts exist and other galaxies exist.
It is very different. We have never seen a spacecraft reach another galaxy so we don't know it is possible.
We have an example of what we call intelligence arising in matter. We don't know what hurdles there are between current AI and an AGI, but we know that AGI is possible.
You didn't answer the question. Zero breakthroughs away, one, or more than one? How strongly do you think whichever you think, and why?
(I'm asking because of your statement, "Don’t fool yourself into believing artificial intelligence is not one breakthrough away", which I'm not sure I understand, but if I am parsing it correctly, I question your basis for saying it.)
