The bad news is that mostly, as far as we can see, that doubling of performance also requires (at least) doubling of resource usage, plus we're getting close to a point where planetary resources for doubling LLM resources are getting kind of low...
This species is going extinct. I finally accepted that when my dad died rather than change his lifestyle, despite being warned 10000x. My mom survived a heart attack, saw what happened to my dad, still hasn't changed her lifestyle.
But I think we should expect the scope of LLM work to improve rapidly in the next few years.
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...