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I have an article looking at similar probabilities here: <https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/how-likely-are-various-prec...>; for asteroids we gave 0.02% per decade of killing >= 1M people.

One thing to consider is that for a 55m asteroid like this one to do a lot of harm, it not only has to hit the earth, it has to hit it somewhere very populated. (only about 0.3% of the earth is very urban https://nunosempere.com/blog/2024/10/16/urban-share/)



Or hit the sea, which covers ~70% of the earth?


That's an interesting one, from the comment above yours linked article

  The Tugunska event of 1908 instead had 50-60m, but caused only three deaths because it was over a sparsely populated area; it still affected 2.1K km2 (or about two NYCs worth). 
which raises questions about what kind of wave such an impact could create and what are the odds of that hitting a populated coastal town (or three) might be.




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