The "by any metric" statements seems false. A "not doing fine" does not have 54-year low unemployment rate @ 3.4% [1]
US GDP growth for since 2022 Q3 has been in the 5% range (very strong) [2]
Median individual income is at an all time high, poverty rate is at a 10 year low (2% decrease from 2014 to now, not huge percentage wise, but that is still 6 million people)
On the flip side - yes, home sales are at a low. Increased interest rates and a real estate market that saw a price correction in 2011 and 2020 with the corresponding economic recessions, has not made housing any more affordable at all.
> Tech CEOs don't control the interest rates. The interest rate effects their ability to get free and cheap money.
True, though that free & cheap money means more people can start companies, grow their companies faster - and that in turn creates bottom-up economics where more people have more disposable income and can then buy homes.
My second mortgage is now absurdly expensive.. But yeah, we are seeing the result of the Fed policy to try and _cool_ the economy as much as they can. One of the big levers they have - interest rates. The Fed intentionally made mortgages more expensive.
Further yet though, housing inventory is a big factor, which you then need to look at local governments and zoning restrictions for why there is not more housing built.
In sum, the wider economy IS doing fine by several metrics. Inflation AFAIK was not really a factor for home prices to increase. That was caused by the Fed, a a deep pandemic-induced recession, and all of the same forces that have caused housing prices to increase since essentially the 70s & 80s [4].
So the average working person is in fact worse now economically than they were 2-3 years ago. It's not just a subjective feeling, and the other positive metrics don't change that.
Though, I was responding to specifically: "by any metric", and the presence of one poor metric does not justify that statement.
> So the average working person is in fact worse now economically than they were 2-3 years ago.
I don't think that logic holds. Real wages is not _the_ one measure of economic health. I would agree that it is likely a significant portion. I would posit that whether you are employed or not is another significant measure, as would be things like net household wealth (which are back to early 2022 levels) [1]
> It's not just a subjective feeling
To some extent, the metrics do not show that to be an objective feeling. For example, real wages are back to 2020 levels, would we expect consumer confidence to be at the same level? If real wages and economic health strongly correlate, I would suspect consumer confidence would as well.
The data shows we're a good bit under 2020 and are at confidence levels of 2017 [2]
On the other hand, economic sentiment _is_ subjective. For example, if you and everyone in your town is in the 30th percentile of the economy, it's not going to feel like things are going well. Which is to say, no one person can easily get enough anecdotal experience for it to be statistically significant.
What's more, economic health is hard to measure. $30/hour might be great if you live with parents & have no debt, but it could be crushing if you have children and rent. Which is to say, I'm quite sure you can't therefore accurately say 'in fact worse now economically' based on one measure.
The "by any metric" statements seems false. A "not doing fine" does not have 54-year low unemployment rate @ 3.4% [1]
US GDP growth for since 2022 Q3 has been in the 5% range (very strong) [2]
Median individual income is at an all time high, poverty rate is at a 10 year low (2% decrease from 2014 to now, not huge percentage wise, but that is still 6 million people)
On the flip side - yes, home sales are at a low. Increased interest rates and a real estate market that saw a price correction in 2011 and 2020 with the corresponding economic recessions, has not made housing any more affordable at all.
> Tech CEOs don't control the interest rates. The interest rate effects their ability to get free and cheap money.
True, though that free & cheap money means more people can start companies, grow their companies faster - and that in turn creates bottom-up economics where more people have more disposable income and can then buy homes.
My second mortgage is now absurdly expensive.. But yeah, we are seeing the result of the Fed policy to try and _cool_ the economy as much as they can. One of the big levers they have - interest rates. The Fed intentionally made mortgages more expensive.
Further yet though, housing inventory is a big factor, which you then need to look at local governments and zoning restrictions for why there is not more housing built.
In sum, the wider economy IS doing fine by several metrics. Inflation AFAIK was not really a factor for home prices to increase. That was caused by the Fed, a a deep pandemic-induced recession, and all of the same forces that have caused housing prices to increase since essentially the 70s & 80s [4].
[1] https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2023/02/news-unemployment...
[2] https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-...
[3] https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA?mprop=amount&popt=...
[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS