What I was referring to with the greater fool theory is that the investors who put in ~$50 million, for a valuation of ~$500 million thought they'd find a greater fool to sell the company to, to make money off of (since I don't think Instagram could actually earn that money from its userbase), and that greater fool turned out to be Facebook.
In turn, Facebook, implicitly assumes that the greater fool from whom they will make money from this deal is the public who will buy shares when Facebook goes IPO. Because with $1 billion in profits for 2011, if the market values them at $100 billion, that will be a P/E ratio of 100. Even if they double their profit in 2012, their P/E ratio will still be 50, which is astronomical.
When people put huge money into things that have low value from a business fundamentals point of view, just because they think they can sell later on to someone else to make a huge profit, I think that's the very definition of a bubble.
What you call greater fool is just who has more value for Instagram. Instragram is worth more to Facebook than it is to Sequoia because Sequoia don't run a social network with hundreds of millions of users and aren't trying to stop Google from killing their business.
If I buy a bathtub from a bathtub warehouse at a 50% markup am I the 'greater fool' or do I just like hot baths?
> Because with $1 billion in profits for 2011, if the market values them at $100 billion, that will be a P/E ratio of 100. Even if they double their profit in 2012, their P/E ratio will still be 50, which is astronomical.
And then if it doubles again it becomes 25, and then it becomes 12, and then it becomes 6. only 4 years away to Facebook being a blue chip stock - so all that the 100 PE ratio is telling you is that they do believe that revenue and income will grow pretty quickly over the next few years.
The last bubble got messy because public markets were being used as what private equity does today. The public was shouldering the risk profile of a big VC firm that filled in all the shitty deals.
"And then if it doubles again it becomes 25, and then it becomes 12, and then it becomes 6. only 4 years away to Facebook being a blue chip stock - so all that the 100 PE ratio is telling you is that they do believe that revenue and income will grow pretty quickly over the next few years."
Those are some BIG ifs. I'm going to contrast Google and Facebook to explain why I think Facebook is overvalued.
When Google was in it's fast growth phase, it could perhaps justify a P/E like what Facebook has now - because of the way in which Google makes money. For roughly 1 out of every 14 Google searches, a user clicks a Google ad. As the amount of people on the internet grows, that means the amount of searches grow, meaning the number of ad clicks grows in tandem. Even today, with all the smartphones and tablets and people from the BRICS coming online, Google only has a P/E of 21[1].
Now contrast that with the way in which Facebook makes money. Targeted ads. The revenue they generate doesn't grow in tandem with Facebook's userbase. Granted, the revenue goes up as companies chase the eyeballs, but it seems to be a mixed bag of results selling ads on Facebook, so some companies aren't going to get the results they want and will quit Facebook. People there don't go there primarily to look at products (completely different to many Google searches). And of course some companies will get great results, but the overall point is that there isn't a direct correlation between user growth and revenue growth.
Ah!, you say, but there are other ways for Facebook to make money (off the top of my head):
a) Premium celebrity pages (pay Facebook for a prominent page to get fans)
b) Somehow charge for user accounts, maybe for premium features
c) Selling user data to third parties
d) Zynga etc. profit sharing
e) Others
Maybe they could make some revenue from premium celebrity pages, but not enough to justify a 3-figure P/E, IMO. Charging for premium features would be highly controversial, if they did this it would be a sign of desperation and a complete departure from where they began. They probably will do some form of c at some stage (don't worry, your data is completely anonymised!) but users would probably abandon ship to competitors in droves if they did. They will continue to make money from social gaming, but it's fickle and short-lived, plus Zynga is trying to wean themselves off Facebook to grow their own revenue.
Overall I think they will continue to make billions from ad impressions and social gaming profit sharing, but nowhere near enough to justify a $100bn valuation IMHO. If they bow to Wall Street pressure and really try to squeeze their userbase data for every dime (you could call this 'doing a MySpace', i.e. shooting themselves in the foot), people will leave in droves to the next social hotspot. So it will be 'interesting' to see how they will justify the lofty valuation over the coming years.
In turn, Facebook, implicitly assumes that the greater fool from whom they will make money from this deal is the public who will buy shares when Facebook goes IPO. Because with $1 billion in profits for 2011, if the market values them at $100 billion, that will be a P/E ratio of 100. Even if they double their profit in 2012, their P/E ratio will still be 50, which is astronomical.
When people put huge money into things that have low value from a business fundamentals point of view, just because they think they can sell later on to someone else to make a huge profit, I think that's the very definition of a bubble.