1) I am not because of what you said - it's tough, more so from a data architecture standpoint (set up the accounts, data scrapes, etc.). Also, at 8 million USD 30-day dollar volume on MtGox, I'm not sure if there's enough depth yet to make it worth it (still toying with the idea, though).
A currency's value isn't a function of how much of it is outstanding but how much is transacted in it. If "most bitcoins are held by...people" holding on speculation, they contribute to holding its value down (don't think of stocks with dividends, think of fx). They also make the market smaller and less liquid.
2) The quote cycling HF market making algos use to discover prices disappears in a liquid market. If done in penny stocks, on the other hand, it would scare the hell out of everyone when a market order executes against a discovery bid way out on Pluto.
When these slips happen the HF guys get hurt - that's why they pull their servers causing the liquidity cuts they're criticised for. Thus, they work to predict when that kind of slip-up will happen. I'm reversing the logic and saying I'll force the slip-up and take advantage of the volatility right after, something with uncertain pay-off in liquid markets (you burn yourself in spawning the unstable equilibria) but more definite pay-off in illiquid ones.
Note that I wouldn't recommend trading Bitcoins at a high frequency for the same reason that HFs don't mess with penny stocks. The pay-off is too low compared with the infrastructure investment required. I'd probably also blow my cover with the exchanges.
A currency's value isn't a function of how much of it is outstanding but how much is transacted in it. If "most bitcoins are held by...people" holding on speculation, they contribute to holding its value down (don't think of stocks with dividends, think of fx). They also make the market smaller and less liquid.
2) The quote cycling HF market making algos use to discover prices disappears in a liquid market. If done in penny stocks, on the other hand, it would scare the hell out of everyone when a market order executes against a discovery bid way out on Pluto.
When these slips happen the HF guys get hurt - that's why they pull their servers causing the liquidity cuts they're criticised for. Thus, they work to predict when that kind of slip-up will happen. I'm reversing the logic and saying I'll force the slip-up and take advantage of the volatility right after, something with uncertain pay-off in liquid markets (you burn yourself in spawning the unstable equilibria) but more definite pay-off in illiquid ones.
Note that I wouldn't recommend trading Bitcoins at a high frequency for the same reason that HFs don't mess with penny stocks. The pay-off is too low compared with the infrastructure investment required. I'd probably also blow my cover with the exchanges.
Hope that answers your question!