A quote from datscilly, the top forecaster on metaculus:
>AGI may never happen, but the chance of that is small enough that adjusting for that here will not make a big difference (I put ~10% that AGI will not happen for 500 years or more, but it already matches that distribution quite well).[1]
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/create/
EDIT: bunch of other related predictions currently open:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&sear...
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&sear...