Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> Predicting the coronavirus was equally hard

No, it's mainly not. The problem is people assume tomorrow is going to be like today and yesterday (for all problems, not just this one). Add to that that people don't like hearing unpleasant news and will tune it out. Net result: they ignore it and when pushed will start to deny it. You can add on top that rare newspaper editors that do recognise a risk will not want to piss off their readership by telling them the truth (or a or probably future occurrence) that they will get angry at. Give the people what they want, not what they need.

For covid, I started stockpiling a bit of food etc. about a month before anyone else. My calculation was, this is likely to happen but may not. If things kick off I may need it. If they don't, I eat it anyway. There's no downside. (Incidentally I did the same ~2007 before the crash for the same reason. Turned out unnecessary then).

What happened when I told people about covid usually follows 2 particular patterns 1) "No don't be stupid, it's not that bad" - simple denial. 2) they stare at you full-face on, totally expressionless for about 2 or 3 seconds, they turn their head away, exhale, turn back and start talking about something else as if what you'd said never happened - blanking it. It's a curious, quite consistent response when it happens.

We get all the warning we need, the majority of people just don't want to know. QV. climate change, carrington events, epidemics (we had plenty of epidemiologists saying When not If), financial crashes. It's all there if you want to know.



Consider applying for YC's Fall 2026 batch! Applications are open till July 27.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: