We had this expectation that nothing was really important enough to interrupt international travel. Even as Hubei was put in lockdown the Chinese were allowing their citizens to travel the globe, including direct flights from Wuhan to international destinations, and applying extreme pressure on countries to not restrict their entry.
Basically the system has too much delay to respond, even to a strong signal. Even significant local deaths in the US is not strong enough to change politics and media. If Ebola had broken out we would have had the same problem.
I think we are stuck in a local maximum. It takes a significant push for the system to escape oscillating back to where we are.
> Even as Hubei was put in lockdown the Chinese were allowing their citizens to travel the globe, including direct flights from Wuhan to international destinations
What? I remember Hubei was shut down with airports, and the rest of the world had to scramble evac flights to retrieve their citizens from the area.
They announced the lockdown before it was put into effect, leading to a bomb burst of potential carriers escaping in the next 24H. Even after that, international commercial flights were allowed to depart.
I remember suggesting here and elsewhere that lockdowns should be announced on the spot, and quarantines should be applied retroactively. I.e. if at 18:00 the president/prime minister gets on air and announces a lockdown, that lockdown should be active from 18:00, and everyone coming into the country in the 14 days before the announcement should be quarantined.
I remember being shouted down as suggesting something extremely undemocratic. After all, the law isn't supposed to work backwards (all the cases where it does notwithstanding).
At no point did I imply the Chinese were worse than anyone else at responding. I agree, the lockdown should be immediate, and exceptions should be publically documented -- 'incident 782: flight xyz with 10 pax was granted clearance to land as a medical transport flight, under authority of XYZ, regional medical coordinator'. I don't see requiring retroactive effect though -- just require those people to confine themselves and their co-habitants, and stand by to be contacted for contact tracing.
Basically the system has too much delay to respond, even to a strong signal. Even significant local deaths in the US is not strong enough to change politics and media. If Ebola had broken out we would have had the same problem.
I think we are stuck in a local maximum. It takes a significant push for the system to escape oscillating back to where we are.